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Alaska isn’t an ordinary state. It occupies a much larger geographical area than any of the Lower 48 (it’s more than twice as large as Texas), but with the third-smallest population. Its climate, demographics, and economics are unique as well, as is its near-colonial relationship with the federal government, which owns over 60 percent of its land. And as many political observers are realizing this year, Alaska also has a unique electoral system. The state’s voters are choosing between four candidates for the U.S. Senate. Two are named “Dan Sullivan” thanks to a Democratic scheme to put a ringer in the race, as the New York Times has revealed in a new blockbuster story . How that happened might haunt the midterms for a long time.
First, a quick primer on that electoral system: A successful 2020 ballot initiative abolished the state’s party primaries. But instead of, say, the Top Two Primary system used by California and Washington that typically produces familiar D versus R general election contests, Alaska’s non-partisan primary promotes the Top Four vote-gatherers for any given office to November. But then there’s another wrinkle: the general election winner is determined by ranked-choice voting . The whole system is designed to encourage non-partisan and bipartisan coalition-building, which is one reason why both chambers in the Alaska legislature are controlled by cross-partisan coalitions. But it can also produce a lot of voter confusion and provide an opportunity for chicanery.
By way of background, in 2022 the Alaska system produced precisely the kind of results its designers probably wanted: moderate Republican Lisa Murkowski (who had repeatedly bucked her party in Washington and at home) was reelected to the Senate by defeating a Trump-backed and state GOP-endorsed conservative, while Democrat Mary Peltola defeated former Governor and vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin . Murkowski and Peltola, moreover, endorsed each other .
This year, however, Murkowski is backing her GOP Senate colleague Dan S. Sullivan (the middle initial is important) who is being challenged by Peltola, though Murkowski has also endorsed a Democratic candidate for governor , citing his bipartisan conduct in the legislature. As noted, Alaska politics are as complicated as its election system. Without question, the Senate race is potentially very important; with control of the chamber hanging in the balance, Sullivan’s seat is one of six or seven Democrats believe (and the polls back them up) they can flip. And there’s a decent chance Alaska voters could hold the result in their hands after the other 34 Senate races have been won or lost. It’s a state with substantial voting by mail from remote rural areas, and thus counts mail ballots postmarked by election day if they are received within ten days. And its RCV voting feature means that after all the ballots are in the state will have to conduct RCV calculations (voters can rank up to four general election candidates) to figure out who has won. In the aforementioned 2022 midterms, unofficial winners were not announced until November 23 , and the final certification occurred a week later.
And now it looks like the final, final final results of the Senate race could take even longer. Republicans in Alaska and Washington are in an uproar now that the Times has abundantly documented that it was indeed Democratic operatives associated with Mary Peltola’s campaign and its national party allies who found, recruited and deployed the “other” Dan Sullivan to confuse voters and hold down the “real” Dan Sullivan’s initial vote. Peltola herself did not, the Times report says, direct this ratfucking operation, but she knew about it. The principal source for the Times story is a former Peltola staffer who was recently fired, but there are plenty of documents and back-up sources too.
The Times story broke shortly after the Department of Justice filed a legally flimsy lawsuit to preemptively prohibit any certification of victory by Mary Peltola, citing the “two Dan Sullivans” controversy. The suit’s going nowhere, as New York ’s Elie Honig explained last week, but there is additional recourse for angry Republicans. The Senate is ultimately the sole and final judge of its own membership. The DoJ suit, and now the details from the Times , may simply be the prologue to a refusal by Senate Republicans next January to seat Mary Peltola even if she is the state-certified election winner. If Senate control depends on this seat, it could have huge implications.
Alaska voters hold the key to avoiding that sort of crisis. They can give the incumbent Dan Sullivan a victory either in the first round or after the RCV calculation. Or they could give Mary Peltola a clean first-round majority that makes the question of how the Dan Sullivan votes were divided irrelevant. This whole strange brouhaha could also provide some last-minute momentum behind a GOP-backed ballot initiative to revoke the whole Top Four/RCV system and return to party primaries. Clearly, the Democrats involved in the Two Sullivans scheme would have been smarter to play the elections straight in hopes that a Democratic wave and Peltola’s own popularity would give her a win. But right now confusion is leading the count on all ballot questions in Alaska, and casting a shadow on the Senate.
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