Colombo, Nov. 4 (Daliy Mirror) - South Asia which once boasted of boosting growth with its rising working age population is now ageing fast with Sri Lanka bound to cross the aged threshold fastest, according to a World Bank report launched yesterday.
The report titled ‘Demographic Change in South Asia: From Tailwinds to Headwinds for Development’ highlights that Sri Lankans will age by 2023 whereas some Indian states such as Kerala have already crossed it.
South Asia accounts for 1.66 billion people - 24 percent of the global population. The working age group stands at 1.17 billion and represents 22 percent of the world.
Demographic tailwinds (the first demographic dividend) boosted growth over the past several decades as more adults entered their prime working years and had fewer dependents to support. Since 2000, demographic trends have added an estimated 0.4 percentage point a year to South Asia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth (0.5 percentage point for India). International evidence suggests that the rising share of the working-age population may also have raised annual labor productivity growth in the region by 0.4–1.1 percentage points over the same period, the report says.
However, the region is not confronted with fading demographic tailwinds. Working-age population growth which averaged 2.2 percent a year between 1960 and 2023, is now projected to fall to 0.6 percent a year between 2024 and 2050. The resultant contribution of demographics to GDP growth is expected to shrink by three-quarters, to about 0.1 percentage point a year over the same period.
The report says that by 2034, the working-age share of the population will peak in the region. It will cross into aged status in 2049 but the timing varies across the region. Bhutan, India, and Maldives have less than a decade before their working-age shares peak; Bangladesh and Nepal have about two; and Sri Lanka’s share peaked in 2005, and the country will reach aged status in 2030 .
The study finds that only 60 percent of South Asia’s working-age population is employed, compared with 69 percent in other EMDEs (Emerging Market and Developing Economies).
“Only 34 percent are employed in the more productive nonagricultural sectors, compared with 51 percent elsewhere. Among those employed, 88 percent are informally employed, a share higher than in any EMDE region and on par with Sub-Saharan Africa. Informal employees earn 45–84 percent less than formal employees in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, representing a large loss of income and productivity,” the report says.
Maruthai Wednesday, 04 November 2026 04:54 PM
Sri Lanka is actively exporting youngsters and government should encourage youngsters to become entrepreneurs and export goods instead.
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