Sri Lanka’s high temperatures throughout the year, unique and complex hydrological regime, and exposure to extreme climate events make it highly vulnerable to climate change. Increased extreme events and natural hazards due to climate change will considerably threaten Sri Lanka’s economy and human health. In recent years, Sri Lanka has experienced a series of major crises, including the 2019 Easter Attacks and the global COVID-19 pandemic , followed by the 2022 economic crisis. These crises have severely affected marginalized communities’ capacity to withstand the impacts of even minor external shocks .
According to local authorities’ data, Sri Lanka’s northern provinces are highly susceptible to floods, drought, and human-animal conflict hazards. They experience high vulnerability due to the high share of low-income families, dependency on agriculture and fisheries, and few protection measures in place. Within this context, IMPACT Initiatives, in partnership with Acted, conducted an Area based Risk Assessment (ABRA) in Vavuniya South Divisional Secretary’s Divisions (DSD) in Vavuniya district, Northern Province, funded by the US Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA).
The study is anchored on the Sri Lanka Disaster Management Plan 2018-2030 and the National Action Plan for Climate Change Adaptation 2016-2025. The objective is to analyse the main hazards threatening communities within the target DSD, identifying the Grama Nilahadari Divisions (GNDs) most at risk for multiple hazards. The findings intend to assist Acted, the national Government, local authorities, humanitarian partners, and affected communities in predicting better, preparing for, and responding to existing and future events through resilience and adaptation initiatives targeting the most exposed and vulnerable territories and communities.
Through local consultations, IMPACT Initiatives identified the eight most recurrent hazards in the eastern and northern provinces of Sri Lanka: drought, flood, human/animal conflict, cyclones, storms, water supply failure, explosives remnants of war (ERW), and land degradation. Local authorities and communities reported during the preliminary consultations in Vavuniya South that floods, droughts, and human-elephant conflict (HEC) are the most prominent. Therefore they were selected to calculate the risk through an adapted World Risk Index Methodology, by which the risk is a multiplication of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (including susceptibility and lack of coping capacity) of all GNDs.
Through the study, IMPACT identified three GNDs, namely Nedunkulama, Madukanda, and Mahamailankulama as the most at risk for multiple hazards. Nedunkulama and Madukanda present the highest flood risk, combined with a high drought risk and Mahamailankulama has the highest HEC risk and above-average flood and drought risks. Nedunkulama has high vulnerability due to having 21% of female-headed households, 47% dependency ratio and 44% of low-income families. The vulnerability index increases the risk of communities to all hazards. Madukanda and Mahamailankulama have a high dependency ratio, around 25% of female-headed households, and 33% and 43% of low-income families, respectively.
In Poomaduwa, the population has the highest level of vulnerability regarding social dependency, with 64% of female-headed households 32% of families with members with a disability, and a high share of children and older people. Social dependency is when an individual or group relies on another individual or group for resources, support, or guidance. Track 7 presents the highest family livelihood dependency on agriculture and inland fishery.
Pirappamaduwa has the lowest economic situation, with 62% of households earning daily wages between 2000 and 3000 LKR and 15% of unemployed individuals, according to local authorities. The unemployment and low-income rates are social insecurity indicators, that present the low financial capacity to prepare and recover from hazards.
Overall, the study’s findings underscore the importance of a local approach to understanding risk and informing disaster risk reduction strategies. The specific risk profile of each GND must guide how to prioritise and customise preparedness interventions for drought management, flood control, and HEC. Stakeholders can use this assessment as a valuable tool to design targeted interventions to enhance the resilience of communities and territories in Vavuniya South against single and multi-hazard scenarios.
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