By Phuntsho Wangyel, Representative a.i., UNFPA Sri Lanka Sri Lanka has emerged from its worst post-independence economic crisis with renewed signs of stability and growth. The country’s return to upper-middle-income status as reclassified by the World Bank, marks an important milestone in its economic recovery. Following the sovereign default in 2022, the economy has recorded 5 [...]
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By Phuntsho Wangyel, Representative a.i., UNFPA Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has emerged from its worst post-independence economic crisis with renewed signs of stability and growth. The country’s return to upper-middle-income status as reclassified by the World Bank, marks an important milestone in its economic recovery. Following the sovereign default in 2022, the economy has recorded 5 per cent growth in 2025, reflecting the government’s efforts to stabilise the economy, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), through fiscal consolidation, external debt restructuring, and reforms aimed at strengthening public finances.
But as Sri Lanka looks towards its next chapter, another profound transformation is already underway, one that will shape its economy, public services, families and communities for generations to come. Sri Lanka’s population is ageing; fertility is declining; and the population is growing slowly.
These demographic shifts come at a critical moment. As the country works to sustain its economic recovery, much of the national conversation is rightly focused on productivity, investments, digital transformation and private-sector competitiveness. Yet, behind each of these ambitions lies one indispensable factor and that would be the people of Sri Lanka.
The 2024 Census of Population and Housing data clearly highlights the scale of change taking place in Sri Lanka’s population. The population of older persons aged 65 years and above has increased from 7.9 per cent in 2012 to 12.6 per cent in 2024 and projected to grow to 22.1 per cent by 2037, while the proportion of children aged 0-14 years declined from 25.2 per cent to 20.7 per cent over the same period and is projected to decline to 19.1 per cent by 2037. Sri Lanka’s fertility rate has also fallen well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
These figures tell us that Sri Lanka’s future will look fundamentally different from what it is today. There will be significant changes in the size and composition of the labour force, in how families live and provide care, and in the demands placed on health systems, social protection, public finances, and intergenerational balances.
An ageing population is not necessarily a crisis. Longer lives are a sign of significant national development. The challenge lies in whether societies are prepared to benefit from the changes that come with an ageing population. For Sri Lanka, this means adapting comprehensive health and social protection systems, recalibrating the provision of care services, building human capital in anticipation of changes in the labour force, and most importantly, investing in the capabilities and aspirations of younger generations.
Can Sri Lanka’s young people see a future at home?
This brings me to the concept of ‘Demographic Resilience’, which refers to a country’s ability to ensure that its institutions, investments, and policies can anticipate, adapt and respond to demographic change, while protecting rights and expanding opportunities for all people. It means investing in young people, supporting families, promoting gender equality, preparing for population ageing and ensuring that development planning is informed by evidence.
The 2024 Census counted 4.8 million young people aged 15-29 years, representing 21.9 per cent of Sri Lanka’s population. But the question is not how many young people Sri Lanka has. It is whether young people can imagine and realistically build a future for themselves?
The post-2022 economic crisis accelerated outward migration among skilled workers and professionals, including many young Sri Lankans seeking opportunities abroad. Migration can bring significant benefits to individuals, families and countries; but when young people feel that leaving is their only viable path towards economic security and personal fulfilment, it raises deeper questions about the opportunities available to them at home.
Sri Lanka’s window to benefit from a relatively large working-age population is narrowing. Making the most of this remaining demographic dividend will depend on whether young people are healthy, educated and skilled, and whether they have genuine opportunities to participate fully in the economy and society.
What young people aspire to achieve and what prevents them from achieving those aspirations should therefore, be central to Sri Lanka’s development debate.
UNFPA’s Demographic Futures Survey, released globally on July 7, shows that rising living costs, housing insecurity, economic uncertainty, and widening inequalities are making it increasingly difficult for many young people to build the lives and families they want.
These pressures do not affect young people equally. Poverty, discrimination and harmful social norms continue to limit opportunities, while young women, in particular face persistent barriers to safe and decent work. National Labour Force Survey data show that unemployment among young women is at 30.6 per cent for those aged 15–24 and 20.1 per cent for those aged 25–29, rates that reach up to two and a half times those of their male peers. This shows that many educated women are left out of the professional workforce, vulnerable to exploitation, violence, and economic insecurity.
Economic participation, however, is only one part of the equation. Young people must have meaningful avenues to participate in political and public decision-making processes, contributing proactively to the policies that shape their lives, enabling them to voice their concerns, needs, and suggestions in determining the future direction of the country.
The theme of this year’s World Population Day, ‘Realising the Hopes and Aspirations of Young People’ underscores the importance of investment in the youth for Sri Lanka’s future. The Census has shown us where the country is heading and the question now is whether our policies, institutions and investments are ready to respond to the emerging needs and challenges, ensuring we leave no one behind.
Too often, young people are spoken about as beneficiaries of development rather than partners in shaping it. A resilient Sri Lanka should recognise young people as workers, entrepreneurs, innovators, community leaders, and decision-makers.
At the heart of this agenda is choice: the government must ensure young people have the ability to pursue education and careers, decide whether, when, and with whom to form families, participate in public life, and build futures free from discrimination and violence.
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Print Edition – The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka
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